FC 08 Homburg vs Freiburg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC 08 Homburg and 1.40 for Freiburg II, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FC 08 Homburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC 08 Homburg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Freiburg II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC 08 Homburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for FC 08 Homburg and 1.40 for Freiburg II, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC 08 Homburg win37%

Draw25%

Freiburg II win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
0–18.5%
1–08.5%
1–28.3%
2–18.3%

Recent form

FC 08 Homburg

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Steinbach · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hessen Kassel · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 1-1 (D)

Freiburg II

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Sandhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Trier · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 4-3 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	12	7	5	0	19	26
2	VfR Aalen	12	7	3	2	11	24
3	VfR Mannheim	12	6	5	1	11	23
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	12	7	2	3	6	23
5	Kickers Offenbach	12	6	2	4	6	20
6	FC 08 Homburg	12	5	4	3	1	19
7	SV Sandhausen	12	5	4	3	-1	19
8	Eintracht Trier	12	6	1	5	-3	19
9	Freiburg II	11	4	4	3	5	16
10	TSV Steinbach	12	4	4	4	2	16
11	Hessen Kassel	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	11	4	1	6	-2	13
14	FSV Mainz 05 II	12	3	2	7	-11	11
15	FC Astoria Walldorf	12	2	4	6	-5	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	12	2	4	6	-13	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.