· Analysis updated 16:00 UTC
FC 08 Homburg vs FSV Mainz 05 II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for FC 08 Homburg and 0.99 for FSV Mainz 05 II, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives FC 08 Homburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC 08 Homburg win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC 08 Homburg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC 08 Homburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for FC 08 Homburg and 0.99 for FSV Mainz 05 II, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.5%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.4%
Recent form
FC 08 Homburg
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Steinbach · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hessen Kassel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 1-1 (D)
FSV Mainz 05 II
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs VfR Mannheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfR Aalen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Kickers Offenbach | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | VfR Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Freiburg II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | TSV Steinbach | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | FC 08 Homburg | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | SV Sandhausen | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Eintracht Trier | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 11 | Hessen Kassel | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | FSV Frankfurt | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Kaiserslautern II | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 9 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC 08 Homburg win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.