· Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
FC Aarau vs BSC Young Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Aarau and 2.06 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.96. That distribution gives BSC Young Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Aarau home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BSC Young Boys away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BSC Young Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 37% / 21% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for FC Aarau and 2.06 for BSC Young Boys, a combined 3.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.7%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
FC Aarau
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Winterthur · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Kriens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC WIL 1900 · 2-2 (D)
BSC Young Boys
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Aarau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.