· Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
FC Aarau vs FC WIL 1900 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for FC Aarau and 1.60 for FC WIL 1900, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives FC Aarau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Aarau win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Aarau home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC WIL 1900 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Aarau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for FC Aarau and 1.60 for FC WIL 1900, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
FC Aarau
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Winterthur · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Kriens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC WIL 1900 · 2-2 (D)
FC WIL 1900
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Nyonnais · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Étoile Carouge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Aarau · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon Sport · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | FC WIL 1900 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Étoile Carouge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Aarau win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.