· Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
FC Alverca II vs O Elvas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Alverca II and 1.13 for O Elvas, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives FC Alverca II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Alverca II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Alverca II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for FC Alverca II and 1.13 for O Elvas, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
FC Alverca II
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fazendense · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Naval 1893 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UD da Serra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Comércio Indústria · 5-0 (W)
O Elvas
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UD da Serra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sertanense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs União de Leiria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fazendense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs São Roque (Açores) · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · FC Alverca II 2-1 O Elvas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
- 2025-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · FC Alverca II 3-2 O Elvas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D)
- 2025-03-09T15:00:00.000Z · FC Alverca II 1-2 O Elvas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · FC Alverca II 1-3 O Elvas (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.