FC Astana vs Okzhetpes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for FC Astana and 1.16 for Okzhetpes, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives FC Astana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Astana win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.16

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Astana home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Okzhetpes away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Astana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for FC Astana and 1.16 for Okzhetpes, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Astana win55%

Draw22%

Okzhetpes win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.8%
1–08.8%
2–08.4%
3–16.3%

Recent form

FC Astana

2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulytau · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 4-1 (W)

Okzhetpes

2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Irtysh · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
3	FC Astana	26	14	6	6	16	48
4	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	27	13	6	8	4	45
6	Yelimay Semey	27	11	8	8	1	41
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	-1	37
8	Ulytau	27	9	8	10	-6	35
9	Zhenys	27	8	8	11	-7	32
10	Kaspiy	27	9	5	13	-8	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	7	7	13	-9	28
12	Atyrau	26	5	11	10	-7	26
13	Irtysh	27	6	8	13	-11	26
14	Kaisar	27	4	12	11	-14	24
15	Altay	27	5	8	14	-14	23
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	-19	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Astana win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.