FC Astana vs Zhenys Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Astana and 0.88 for Zhenys, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives FC Astana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Astana win

56.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Astana home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zhenys away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FC Astana win56%

Draw24%

Zhenys win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.1%
1–111.4%
2–011.0%
2–19.6%
0–07.8%

Recent form

FC Astana

2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulytau · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 4-1 (W)

Zhenys

2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Okzhetpes · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aktobe · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-03T14:00:00.000Z · FC Astana 1-0 Zhenys (Premier League)
2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · FC Astana 2-2 Zhenys (Premier League)
2025-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · FC Astana 2-3 Zhenys (Premier League)
2025-05-24T14:30:00.000Z · FC Astana 4-2 Zhenys (Premier League)
2025-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · FC Astana 1-1 Zhenys (Cup)
2024-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · FC Astana 1-1 Zhenys (Premier League)
2024-04-13T11:00:00.000Z · FC Astana 1-0 Zhenys (Cup)
2024-03-01T09:30:00.000Z · FC Astana 2-0 Zhenys (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
2	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	30	58
3	FC Astana	25	13	6	6	15	45
4	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	26	13	6	7	6	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	10	8	8	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	-1	37
8	Zhenys	27	8	8	11	-7	32
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	-8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	8	5	13	-9	29
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	7	7	13	-9	28
12	Atyrau	25	5	11	9	-6	26
13	Irtysh	26	6	8	12	-10	26
14	Kaisar	26	4	12	10	-11	24
15	Altay	26	5	8	13	-13	23
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	-19	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Astana win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.