WWK Arena · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
FC Augsburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.45 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives FC Augsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Augsburg win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Augsburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1899 Hoffenheim away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
1899 Hoffenheim
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:45:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-10T18:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-2 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2025-11-29T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 0-3 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2025-03-29T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2025-01-06T13:00:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-11-10T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2024-04-07T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-3 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2024-01-06T12:00:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-0 1899 Hoffenheim (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-11-11T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-17T19:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-0 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
- 2022-08-27T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 0-1 1899 Hoffenheim (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Augsburg win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.