WWK Arena · Referee Sven Jablonski, Germany · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 2.96 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Bayern München the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bayern München win
77.1% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 2.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Augsburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayern München away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–28.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–38.3%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–46.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.90 (model 40.6% vs market 32.6%, edge +8.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.90 | 32.6% | 40.6% | 2.46 | +8.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 7.00 | 13.2% | 13.4% | 7.46 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.06 | 90.3% | 90.5% | 1.10 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 4.20 | 22.8% | 22.9% | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.20 | 77.1% | 77.1% | 1.30 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 9.50 | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.53 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 87.0% | 86.6% | 1.15 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 67.4% | 59.4% | 1.68 | -8.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
Bayern München
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-1 Bayern München (Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-3 Bayern München (Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-04T18:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-3 Bayern München (Bundesliga)
- 2024-11-22T19:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 0-3 Bayern München (Bundesliga)
- 2024-01-27T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-3 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2023-08-27T15:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-3 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2023-03-11T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 3-5 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-19T18:45:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-5 Bayern Munich (DFB Pokal)
- 2022-09-17T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-0 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
- 2022-04-09T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 0-1 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayern München win, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.