WWK Arena · Analysis updated 20:36 UTC
FC Augsburg vs Hertha BSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 3.48 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 5.58. That distribution gives Hertha BSC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hertha BSC win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 3.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Augsburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hertha BSC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 21% / 15% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for FC Augsburg and 3.48 for Hertha BSC, a combined 5.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–35.8%
- 1–35.6%
- 2–45.1%
- 2–25.0%
- 1–44.8%
Recent form
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
Hertha BSC
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Osnabrück · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.