· Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
FC Augsburg vs Sassuolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.75 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives FC Augsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Augsburg win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Augsburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sassuolo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Augsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.75 for Sassuolo, a combined 4.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.3%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.4%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.3%
Recent form
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
Sassuolo
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Augsburg win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.