FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.38 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives FC Augsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FC Augsburg win

61.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Augsburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FC Augsburg win61%

Draw19%

Werder Bremen win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–19.0%
3–17.4%
1–17.4%
2–06.5%
2–26.2%

Recent form

FC Augsburg

2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)

Werder Bremen

2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-3 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 3-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2025-12-20T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 0-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2025-01-19T16:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2024-08-24T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-2 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2024-04-27T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2023-12-09T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 0-2 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2023-03-04T14:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2022-09-09T18:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 1-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
2021-05-15T13:30:00.000Z · FC Augsburg 2-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	6	4	2	0	17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	4	1	1	9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	3	0	3	-9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	2	2	2	4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	-6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	-12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Augsburg win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.