Baza Sportiva FC Bacau · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
FC Bacau vs Slatina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Bacau and 1.10 for Slatina, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives FC Bacau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Bacau home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slatina away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Bacau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for FC Bacau and 1.10 for Slatina, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.17 | 77.3% | 78.9% | 1.27 | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.78 | 51.1% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.27 | 71.1% | 72.1% | 1.39 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.85 | 31.5% | 32.4% | 3.09 | +0.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.60 | 57.6% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.29 | 39.3% | 39.7% | 2.52 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.49 | 60.6% | 60.3% | 1.66 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.17 | 42.4% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.32 | 68.4% | 67.6% | 1.48 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.08 | 29.2% | 27.9% | 3.58 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.86 | 48.9% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.98 | 22.7% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Bacau
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea Suceava · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Reşiţa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbrăviţa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
Slatina
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalul Buzău · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Oltul Curtişoara · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Dinamo București · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-14T10:30:00.000Z · FC Bacau 3-2 Slatina (Liga II)
Liga II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slatina | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | CSM Reşiţa | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Chindia Targoviste | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Popești-Leordeni | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | CS Afumati | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Metalul Buzău | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 9 | Cetatea Suceava | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Concordia | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | Gloria Bistriţa | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Bihor Oradea | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | ASA Targu Mures | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Metaloglobus | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Unirea Slobozia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 17 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 19 | Ştefăneşti | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 21 | CS Dinamo București | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -18 | 4 |
| 22 | Dumbrăviţa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.