St. Jakob-Park · Analysis updated 02:41 UTC
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 2.55 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives FC Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.
Model pick
FC Lugano to Win
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–17.0%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.0%
Why the model likes this
FC Lugano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lugano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 19% / 18% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for FC Basel 1893 and 2.55 for FC Lugano, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
FC Basel 1893
FC Lugano
- 2026-08-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs NSI Runavik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Zurich · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs NSI Runavik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.