St. Jakob-Park · Referee Desiree Grundbacher, Switzerland · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 2.33 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives FC Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Lugano win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Basel 1893 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lugano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
FC Basel 1893
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Lugano · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 3-3 (D)
FC Lugano
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BSC Young Boys · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2026-05-17T14:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 0-4 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2026-02-15T15:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-1 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 0-1 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-08-10T14:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-05-10T18:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 5-2 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-04-06T14:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 2-0 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2025-01-19T15:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 2-2 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2024-07-27T18:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Lugano (Super League)
- 2024-04-02T18:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Lugano (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Lugano win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.