St. Jakob-Park · Referee Sven Wolfensberger, Switzerland · Analysis updated 09:21 UTC
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.73 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives FC Basel 1893 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Basel 1893 win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Basel 1893 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC ST. Gallen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
FC Basel 1893
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luzern · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Lugano · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 3-3 (D)
FC ST. Gallen
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Basel 1893 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-14T14:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
- 2026-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 0-3 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
- 2026-02-04T19:15:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC ST. Gallen (Schweizer Cup)
- 2025-11-30T15:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 0-0 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
- 2025-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
- 2025-02-22T19:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 2-2 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
- 2024-12-08T15:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-1 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
- 2024-10-20T14:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 2-1 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
- 2024-02-11T15:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 1-0 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
- 2023-11-26T15:30:00.000Z · FC Basel 1893 2-0 FC ST. Gallen (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 5 | Servette FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | FC ST. Gallen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Basel 1893 win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.