· Analysis updated 14:09 UTC
FC Bocholt vs Wiedenbrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for FC Bocholt and 1.00 for Wiedenbrück, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives FC Bocholt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Bocholt win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Bocholt home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wiedenbrück away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.7%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.80 (model 46.7% vs market 32.7%, edge +14.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.80 | 32.7% | 46.7% | 2.14 | +14.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.0% | 42.7% | 2.34 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.5% | 22.6% | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 20.0% | 20.1% | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.4% | 77.4% | 1.29 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 57.4% | 57.3% | 1.75 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.7% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 67.3% | 53.3% | 1.88 | -14.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Bocholt
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiedenbrück · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Bonner SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Paderborn II · 4-2 (W)
Wiedenbrück
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bocholt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 2-1 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
- 2026-04-08T17:30:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 2-0 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 4-0 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-02-01T12:00:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 3-3 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
- 2024-08-10T12:00:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 1-2 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
- 2024-02-24T13:00:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 0-0 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
- 2023-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 1-0 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
- 2023-02-25T13:00:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 0-0 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
- 2022-09-03T12:00:00.000Z · FC Bocholt 1-2 Wiedenbrück (Regionalliga - West)
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 31 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 28 |
| 3 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Gutersloh | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Bonner SC | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Westfalia Rhynern | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Bergisch Gladbach | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Hilden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 | Köln II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bochum II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Bocholt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Bocholt win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.