FC Botosani vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC Botosani and 1.24 for Petrolul Ploiesti, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives FC Botosani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Botosani home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Petrolul Ploiesti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Botosani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for FC Botosani and 1.24 for Petrolul Ploiesti, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Botosani win42%

Draw26%

Petrolul Ploiesti win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.9%
2–18.8%
0–18.5%
1–27.6%

Recent form

FC Botosani

2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 1-1 (D)

Petrolul Ploiesti

2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	12	9	2	1	20	29
2	Rapid	13	8	3	2	8	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	8	2	2	18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	7	2	4	1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	7	1	5	5	22
6	FCSB	13	6	3	4	1	21
7	Farul Constanta	13	5	5	3	1	20
8	Uta Arad	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	12	5	1	6	-1	16
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	FC Botosani	13	3	5	5	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	3	5	4	-5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Oţelul	13	2	5	6	-6	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	2	2	9	-16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	1	2	10	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.