Estadio Heroes de San Ramon · Referee Sebastian Lozano, Peru · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
FC Cajamarca vs Atletico Grau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Cajamarca and 1.30 for Atletico Grau, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives FC Cajamarca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Cajamarca home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Grau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Cajamarca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for FC Cajamarca and 1.30 for Atletico Grau, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
FC Cajamarca
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
Atletico Grau
- 2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · FC Cajamarca 1-3 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
- 2026-03-06T20:30:00.000Z · FC Cajamarca 0-1 Atletico Grau (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.