Estadio Heroes de San Ramon · Referee Jesus Cartagena, Peru · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
FC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for FC Cajamarca and 1.18 for Juan Pablo II College, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives FC Cajamarca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Cajamarca win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Cajamarca home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juan Pablo II College away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Cajamarca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for FC Cajamarca and 1.18 for Juan Pablo II College, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
FC Cajamarca
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 1-3 (L)
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Lima · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-22T20:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-17T18:00:00.000Z · FC Cajamarca 2-2 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
- 2026-01-31T20:15:00.000Z · FC Cajamarca 3-3 Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Cajamarca win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.