FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs Altglienicke Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena and 1.70 for Altglienicke, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives FC Carl Zeiss Jena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

61.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Carl Zeiss Jena home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Carl Zeiss Jena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena and 1.70 for Altglienicke, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Carl Zeiss Jena win39%

Draw23%

Altglienicke win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.6%
1–28.2%
2–18.2%
2–27.0%
0–15.7%

Recent form

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 1-2 (L)

Altglienicke

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RSV Eintracht · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-03T18:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0-0 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2025-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1-2 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2025-02-28T18:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2-2 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2024-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2-4 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2024-05-04T11:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2-2 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2023-11-26T12:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0-0 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2023-03-31T17:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0-0 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2022-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0-0 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2022-02-09T18:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1-1 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2021-07-27T16:30:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1-2 Altglienicke (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	9	4	1	24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	9	3	2	21	30
3	Hallescher FC	14	8	5	1	11	29
4	Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	6	4	4	5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	14	4	6	4	0	18
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	BSG Chemie Leipzig	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
15	Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	-18	11
16	Hertha BSC II	14	2	4	8	-15	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.