· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs FSV Zwickau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena and 0.80 for FSV Zwickau, a combined total of 2.62. That distribution gives FC Carl Zeiss Jena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Carl Zeiss Jena win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Carl Zeiss Jena home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Zwickau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Carl Zeiss Jena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena and 0.80 for FSV Zwickau, a combined 2.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
FSV Zwickau
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Altglienicke · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 31 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Altglienicke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | BFC Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Erzgebirge Aue | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Magdeburg II | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | BFC Preussen | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | Tasmania Berlin | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
| 16 | Hertha BSC II | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 17 | RSV Eintracht | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Carl Zeiss Jena win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.