FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs Hertha BSC II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena and 1.15 for Hertha BSC II, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives FC Carl Zeiss Jena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Carl Zeiss Jena win

58.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Carl Zeiss Jena home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FC Carl Zeiss Jena win58%

Draw21%

Hertha BSC II win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.6%
2–08.6%
1–08.4%
3–16.7%

Recent form

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Altglienicke · 1-0 (W)

Hertha BSC II

2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs RSV Eintracht · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Zwickau · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-12-14T13:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3-2 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2025-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1-0 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2025-04-13T11:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 4-1 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2024-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0-2 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2024-03-02T12:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3-1 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2023-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1-1 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2023-05-28T11:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1-1 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2023-01-22T12:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0-1 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2022-03-18T18:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0-1 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
2021-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2-2 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	9	4	1	24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	9	3	2	21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	6	4	4	5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	-18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Carl Zeiss Jena win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.