FC Carl Zeiss Jena vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena and 1.22 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives FC Carl Zeiss Jena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Carl Zeiss Jena win

51.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Carl Zeiss Jena home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Darmstadt 98 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Carl Zeiss Jena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena and 1.22 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Carl Zeiss Jena win51%

Draw23%

SV Darmstadt 98 win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.7%
1–08.8%
2–07.9%
1–26.5%

Recent form

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 1-2 (L)

SV Darmstadt 98

2026-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-23T13:30:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 (DFB Pokal)
2012-04-14T12:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98 (3. Liga)
2011-11-04T18:00:00.000Z · FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0-3 SV Darmstadt 98 (3. Liga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Carl Zeiss Jena win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.