Estadio Municipal Cartagonova · Referee I. de Santisteban Adame · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
FC Cartagena vs Águilas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for FC Cartagena and 0.77 for Águilas, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives FC Cartagena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.3% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Cartagena home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Águilas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Cartagena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 33% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for FC Cartagena and 0.77 for Águilas, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.7%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 65.5% vs market 56.5%, edge +9.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 56.5% | 65.5% | 1.53 | +9.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.4% | 59.2% | 1.69 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 26.6% | 26.7% | 3.75 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.70 | 32.5% | 32.5% | 3.08 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 40.9% | 40.8% | 2.45 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.3% | 67.5% | 1.48 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.3% | 73.3% | 1.36 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 43.5% | 34.5% | 2.90 | -9.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Cartagena
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Águilas · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Zaragoza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Majadahonda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 0-0 (D)
Águilas
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Cartagena · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hércules · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Sant Andreu · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · FC Cartagena 4-1 Águilas (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2023-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · FC Cartagena 0-0 Águilas (Friendlies Clubs)
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Real Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Villarreal II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Hercules | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Real Jaén | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Antequera | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.