NKU Soccer Stadium · Analysis updated 14:37 UTC
FC Cincinnati II vs Connecticut FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for FC Cincinnati II and 2.40 for Connecticut FC, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Connecticut FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Connecticut FC win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Cincinnati II home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Connecticut FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Connecticut FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 23% / 19% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for FC Cincinnati II and 2.40 for Connecticut FC, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–17.3%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–25.8%
Recent form
FC Cincinnati II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crown Legacy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs New York RB II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Carolina Core · 3-1 (W)
Connecticut FC
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Miami II · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T23:00:00.000Z · H vs New York RB II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union II · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Connecticut FC win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.