NKU Soccer Stadium · Analysis updated 18:10 UTC
FC Cincinnati II vs New England II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Cincinnati II and 1.97 for New England II, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives New England II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New England II win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Cincinnati II home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
New England II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–17.8%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
FC Cincinnati II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crown Legacy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs New York RB II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Carolina Core · 3-1 (W)
New England II
- 2026-08-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Miami II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Connecticut FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T23:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 2-2 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2026-06-07T22:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 0-1 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2026-03-15T17:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 1-2 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 3-1 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-06-15T18:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 1-0 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-03-13T21:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 0-2 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 0-0 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-06-30T22:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 1-0 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-04-10T22:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 2-1 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2023-06-18T22:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati II 2-1 New England II (MLS Next Pro)
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New England II win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.