NKU Soccer Stadium · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
FC Cincinnati II vs New York RB II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC Cincinnati II and 1.68 for New York RB II, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives New York RB II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
New York RB II win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Cincinnati II home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
New York RB II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New York RB II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for FC Cincinnati II and 1.68 for New York RB II, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
FC Cincinnati II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crown Legacy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs New York RB II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Carolina Core · 3-1 (W)
New York RB II
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Crown Legacy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huntsville City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs New York City II · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is New York RB II win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.