NKU Soccer Stadium · Analysis updated 14:24 UTC
FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Cincinnati II and 2.00 for Philadelphia Union II, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Cincinnati II home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Philadelphia Union II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philadelphia Union II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 38% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for FC Cincinnati II and 2.00 for Philadelphia Union II, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
FC Cincinnati II
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Philadelphia Union II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire II · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-07-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs New England II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City II · 1-2 (L)
Philadelphia Union II
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs New York City II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Chicago Fire II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Cincinnati II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Connecticut FC · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.