FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC Cincinnati and 2.03 for Nashville SC, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Nashville SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Nashville SC win

54.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 2.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Cincinnati home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nashville SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nashville SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 24% / 22% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for FC Cincinnati and 2.03 for Nashville SC, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Cincinnati win24%

Draw22%

Nashville SC win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–29.6%
1–19.5%
0–27.4%
0–17.3%
1–36.5%

Recent form

FC Cincinnati

2026-10-21T23:00:00.000Z · H vs DC United · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Columbus Crew · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlanta United FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 1-3 (L)

Nashville SC

2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Kansas City · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	9	7	15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	-3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
12	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	8	10	12	-8	34
14	Austin	30	7	10	13	-18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	-39	22
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	15	10	5	22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	8	48
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	-12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	10	9	11	-9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	-17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	-9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	-1	35
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	2	34
13	DC United	30	7	12	11	-15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	8	6	16	-14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	-24	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nashville SC win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.