FC Cincinnati vs Toronto FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.69 expected goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.80 for Toronto FC, a combined total of 4.49. That distribution gives FC Cincinnati the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FC Cincinnati win

56.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.69 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FC Cincinnati win57%

Draw18%

Toronto FC win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score78%

Correct score

2–17.3%
2–26.6%
3–16.6%
3–25.9%
1–15.4%

Why the model likes this

FC Cincinnati home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toronto FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

FC Cincinnati

2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-04T23:45:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs San Jose Earthquakes · 4-2 (W)
2026-07-25T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-2 (L)

Toronto FC

2026-08-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New England Revolution · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-16T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 1-1 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2026-03-08T23:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 0-1 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-14T23:30:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 1-0 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-09T00:30:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 2-0 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2024-05-25T23:30:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 4-3 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2024-02-25T19:30:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 0-0 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2023-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 3-2 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2023-06-21T23:30:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 3-0 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2022-05-04T23:30:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 2-0 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)
2022-04-30T19:00:00.000Z · FC Cincinnati 2-1 Toronto FC (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	15	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	11	33
5	St. Louis City	19	8	5	6	2	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	4	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	4	25
9	Minnesota United FC	19	6	7	6	-5	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
12	San Diego	19	6	6	7	4	24
13	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	-30	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.