Toyota Stadium · Referee Allen Chapman, USA · Analysis updated 06:58 UTC
FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for FC Dallas and 1.55 for Minnesota United FC, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives FC Dallas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Dallas win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.9%
Why the model likes this
Minnesota United FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Dallas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for FC Dallas and 1.55 for Minnesota United FC, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
FC Dallas
- 2026-08-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara Chivas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 0-0 (D)
Minnesota United FC
- 2026-08-16T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T00:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 0-1 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-07-05T00:45:00.000Z · FC Dallas 1-2 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2025-04-20T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 0-0 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-06-20T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 5-3 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2024-06-09T00:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 1-1 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-05-01T01:00:00.000Z · FC Dallas 0-0 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2023-02-26T01:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 0-1 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-10-18T01:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 1-1 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-09-03T19:30:00.000Z · FC Dallas 3-0 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
- 2022-05-22T23:00:00.000Z · FC Dallas 1-2 Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 7 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -15 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 19 |
| 14 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.