FC Differdange 03 vs Etzella Ettelbruck Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for FC Differdange 03 and 1.83 for Etzella Ettelbruck, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Etzella Ettelbruck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Etzella Ettelbruck win

56.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Differdange 03 home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Etzella Ettelbruck away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Etzella Ettelbruck to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 21% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for FC Differdange 03 and 1.83 for Etzella Ettelbruck, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Differdange 03 win21%

Draw23%

Etzella Ettelbruck win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

0–110.8%
1–110.8%
0–29.9%
1–29.9%
0–36.0%

Recent form

FC Differdange 03

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Useldange · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)

Etzella Ettelbruck

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Schengen · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	FC Differdange 03	9	8	0	1	20	24
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	9	7	0	2	6	21
4	Progres Niederkorn	9	6	1	2	10	19
5	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	9	5	3	1	13	18
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	9	6	0	3	11	18
7	Atert Bissen	9	5	1	3	7	16
8	Résidence Walferdange	9	5	0	4	0	15
9	US Hostert	9	3	2	4	1	11
10	F91 Dudelange	9	3	1	5	-5	10
11	Victoria Rosport	9	2	2	5	-6	8
12	AS Jeunesse Esch	9	2	1	6	-6	7
13	US Rumelange	9	2	0	7	-16	6
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	9	1	2	6	-11	5
15	Wiltz	9	1	1	7	-10	4
16	Swift Hesperange	9	0	0	9	-31

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Etzella Ettelbruck win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.