FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev and 1.05 for Naftan, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives FC Dnepr Mogilev the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Dnepr Mogilev win

56.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Dnepr Mogilev home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Naftan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Dnepr Mogilev to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev and 1.05 for Naftan, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Dnepr Mogilev win57%

Draw22%

Naftan win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–010.0%
2–19.9%
2–09.4%
3–16.2%

Recent form

FC Dnepr Mogilev

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Brest · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs ML Vitebsk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baranovichi · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 0-0 (D)

Naftan

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	26	14	5	7	19	47
5	Neman	26	13	4	9	7	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	26	9	6	11	-3	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	26	8	7	11	-2	31
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	26	5	9	12	-20	24
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	26	3	11	12	-16	20
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Dnepr Mogilev win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.