Jan Louwers Stadion · Referee Martin Perez · Analysis updated 13:57 UTC
FC Eindhoven vs Emmen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 2.83 for Emmen, a combined total of 5.15. That distribution gives Emmen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Emmen win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Emmen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Emmen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 33% / 18% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for FC Eindhoven and 2.83 for Emmen, a combined 5.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 85%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–25.4%
- 1–35.1%
- 3–24.8%
Recent form
FC Eindhoven
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-3 (L)
Emmen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Waalwijk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC OSS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Emmen win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.