Stade Auguste Gentelet · Referee Gerbel·Audrey · Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
FC Fleury 91 W vs Paris Saint Germain W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for FC Fleury 91 W and 2.15 for Paris Saint Germain W, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain W win
62.0% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Fleury 91 W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paris Saint Germain W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 18% / 20% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for FC Fleury 91 W and 2.15 for Paris Saint Germain W, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–37.1%
Recent form
FC Fleury 91 W
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Saint-Étienne W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-21T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon W · 0-2 (L)
Paris Saint Germain W
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Feminine Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 12 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Le Havre W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Montpellier W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 8 | FC Fleury 91 W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Saint-Malo W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Nantes W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Lens W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paris Saint Germain W win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.