· Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
FC Fredericia vs Mafra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC Fredericia and 1.26 for Mafra, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives FC Fredericia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Fredericia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mafra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Fredericia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for FC Fredericia and 1.26 for Mafra, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
FC Fredericia
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolding IF · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Esbjerg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvidovre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Odense · 1-2 (L)
Mafra
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tirsense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-15T11:00:00.000Z · FC Fredericia 3-2 Mafra (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-09T11:00:00.000Z · FC Fredericia 1-0 Mafra (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.