FC Gomel vs FC Minsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Gomel and 0.95 for FC Minsk, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives FC Gomel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Gomel win

46.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Gomel home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Minsk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Gomel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for FC Gomel and 0.95 for FC Minsk, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

FC Gomel win46%

Draw28%

FC Minsk win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–112.9%
0–010.0%
0–19.5%
2–09.1%

Recent form

FC Gomel

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Baranovichi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 1-0 (W)

FC Minsk

2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	22	13	8	1	29	47
2	FC Isloch Minsk R.	23	13	7	3	19	46
3	Dinamo Minsk	22	14	4	4	22	46
4	Dinamo Brest	24	13	4	7	16	43
5	Neman	23	12	4	7	9	40
6	FC Gomel	24	11	6	7	11	39
7	FC Vitebsk	24	10	7	7	7	37
8	FC Minsk	24	10	4	10	1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	23	8	6	9	0	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	23	6	7	10	-4	25
11	Baranovichi	24	6	7	11	-17	25
12	Arsenal	24	5	8	11	-18	23
13	Bate Borisov	23	4	9	10	-10	21
14	Belshina	23	5	6	12	-17	21
15	Naftan	24	4	5	15	-31	17
16	FC Dnepr Mogilev	24	2	10	12	-17	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Gomel win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.