Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz · Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
FC Grimma vs Einheit Rudolstadt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for FC Grimma and 1.49 for Einheit Rudolstadt, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives FC Grimma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Grimma win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Grimma home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Einheit Rudolstadt away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Grimma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for FC Grimma and 1.49 for Einheit Rudolstadt, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–06.0%
Recent form
FC Grimma
- 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Einheit Rudolstadt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Plauen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Krieschow · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Sandersdorf · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Einheit Wernigerode · 2-1 (W)
Einheit Rudolstadt
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eilenburg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Freital · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dresden II · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Budissa Bautzen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Plauen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZFC Meuselwitz | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Auerbach | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Germania Halberstadt | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | VfL Halle | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Eilenburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Dresden II | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | Plauen | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | SC Freital | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Weissenfels | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Union Sandersdorf | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Empor Glauchau | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Budissa Bautzen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 13 | Einheit Wernigerode | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Krieschow | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | Einheit Rudolstadt | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
| 16 | FC Frankfurt | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Grimma win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.