England · National League · Regular Season - 518:45

18:45 UTC

Tuesday, 1 September 2026

The Shay · Analysis updated 23:43 UTC

FC Halifax Town vs Hartlepool Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for FC Halifax Town and 1.77 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Hartlepool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Hartlepool to Win

50.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FC Halifax Town win26%
Draw23%
Hartlepool win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score58%

Correct score

  • 1–110.9%
  • 1–29.6%
  • 0–19.1%
  • 0–28.0%
  • 2–16.5%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Hartlepool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.20 goals for FC Halifax Town and 1.77 for Hartlepool, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

  • Model confidence

    Hartlepool to Win is the headline pick at 51% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

FC Halifax Town

    Hartlepool

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      National League table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Harrogate Town220056
      2AFC Hornchurch220046
      3Sutton Utd220046
      4Southend220036
      5Hartlepool220036
      6Forest Green220026
      7Boreham Wood211024
      8AFC Fylde211014
      9Gateshead210113
      10Boston United210113
      11Worthing210103
      12Eastleigh210103
      13Aldershot Town210103
      14Kidderminster Harriers2101-23
      15Yeovil Town202002
      16Tamworth2011-11
      17Carlisle2011-11
      18Scunthorpe2011-11
      19Wealdstone2011-21
      20FC Halifax Town2002-30
      21Altrincham2002-30
      22Barrow2002-30
      23Solihull Moors2002-50
      24Woking2002-50

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.