Panoramastadion Holzhausen · Analysis updated 03:22 UTC
FC Holzhausen vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for FC Holzhausen and 1.65 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Holzhausen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 24% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for FC Holzhausen and 1.65 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
FC Holzhausen
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Reutlingen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Villingen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Nöttingen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Teningen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Muhlhausen · 1-3 (L)
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Preußen Münster · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Waldhof Mannheim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oberachern | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 29 |
| 2 | Backnang | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 28 |
| 3 | FC 08 Villingen | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Reutlingen | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 5 | Bahlinger SC | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Young Boys Reutlingen | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 7 | FV Ravensburg | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Karlsruhe II | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 9 | 1. FC Muhlhausen | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | CFR Pforzheim | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 11 | FC Holzhausen | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Essingen | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | TSV Singen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Balingen | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Teningen | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | FC Nöttingen | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 12 |
| 17 | Türkspor Neckarsulm | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -22 | 9 |
| 18 | Normannia Gmünd | 13 | 2 | 0 | 11 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.