Mikheil Meskhi Stadium · Referee Simone Sozza, Italy · Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
FC Iberia 1999 vs Jagiellonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC Iberia 1999 and 1.59 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Jagiellonia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Iberia 1999 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jagiellonia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jagiellonia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for FC Iberia 1999 and 1.59 for Jagiellonia, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 67.2% | 68.7% | 1.46 | +1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.42 | 66.7% | 67.2% | 1.49 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 55.5% | 55.8% | 1.79 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.12 | 44.1% | 44.2% | 2.26 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.8% | 2.23 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.98 | 31.3% | 31.3% | 3.19 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.6% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.2% | 1.81 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.85 | 33.3% | 32.8% | 3.05 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.15 | 42.7% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.3% | 75.5% | 1.32 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Iberia 1999
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spaeri · 1-0 (W)
Jagiellonia
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Krakow · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.