Audi Sportpark · Referee L. Sambill · Analysis updated 18:29 UTC
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hoffenheim II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.73 for Hoffenheim II, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Hoffenheim II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hoffenheim II win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Ingolstadt 04 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hoffenheim II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hoffenheim II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 22% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.73 for Hoffenheim II, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
FC Ingolstadt 04
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Preußen Münster · 1-1 (D)
Hoffenheim II
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Meppen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jahn Regensburg · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hoffenheim II win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.