Porin Stadion · Analysis updated 18:13 UTC
FC jazz vs KPV-j Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.69 expected goals for FC jazz and 0.90 for KPV-j, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives FC jazz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC jazz win
75.2% probability
Expected goals
2.69 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC jazz home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KPV-j away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC jazz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.69 goals for FC jazz and 0.90 for KPV-j, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–08.9%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
FC jazz
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs VJS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SalPa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs OLS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Rops · 2-2 (D)
KPV-j
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs VJS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tampere United · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SalPa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OLS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Rops · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkönen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere United | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 33 | 54 |
| 2 | Rops | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 48 |
| 3 | SalPa | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 48 |
| 4 | VJS | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 46 |
| 5 | OLS | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | FC jazz | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 40 |
| 7 | PKKU | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | JJK | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 34 |
| 9 | Inter Turku II | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -9 | 30 |
| 10 | TPV | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -10 | 30 |
| 11 | KPV-j | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | -52 | 19 |
| 12 | KuPS Akatemia | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | -21 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC jazz win, at 75.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.