· Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
FC Jerusalem vs Ironi Beit Shemesh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for FC Jerusalem and 1.87 for Ironi Beit Shemesh, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives FC Jerusalem the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ironi Beit Shemesh away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Jerusalem to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 21% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for FC Jerusalem and 1.87 for Ironi Beit Shemesh, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.2%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
FC Jerusalem
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Yavne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T08:55:00.000Z · A vs Nordia Jerusalem · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Ashdod · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Kfar Saba 1928 · 2-1 (W)
Ironi Beit Shemesh
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordia Jerusalem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Ashdod · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Kfar Saba 1928 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Shimshon Tel Aviv · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Segev Shalom · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Alef table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tira | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Ironi Nesher | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Dimona | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Holon Yermiyahu | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Beitar Nahariya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 8 | Hapoel Hadera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 9 | Hapoel Ramat HaSharon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 11 | Hapoel Herzliya | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | Hapoel Nazareth Illit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Hapoel Beit Shean | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 15 | Hapoel Sderot | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 16 | Hapoel Azor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 17 | Ironi Beit Shemesh | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Jerusalem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 19 | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 20 | Maccabi K. Ata Bialik | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 21 | Maccabi Yavne | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 22 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 23 | Hapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 24 | Hapoel Marmorek | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 25 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 26 | Maccabi Ashdod | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 27 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 28 | Hapoel Bnei Musmus | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 29 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 30 | Tzeirey Tamra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 31 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 32 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 33 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 34 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 35 | Tzeirey Tira | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | 0 |
| 36 | Nordia Jerusalem | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.