Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez · Referee Katia García, Mexico · Analysis updated 11:34 UTC
FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for FC Juarez and 2.15 for CF Pachuca, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives CF Pachuca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CF Pachuca win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Juarez home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CF Pachuca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.9%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–37.8%
Recent form
FC Juarez
- 2026-10-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 1-2 (L)
CF Pachuca
- 2026-10-22T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T03:05:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2026-02-08T01:06:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2025-11-24T01:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2025-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2025-03-01T23:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-2 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2024-11-10T01:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-0 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2024-03-03T01:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-3 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2023-10-21T01:06:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2023-01-23T01:10:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-4 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
- 2022-09-15T02:05:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-1 CF Pachuca (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CF Pachuca win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.