Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez · Referee Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico · Analysis updated 23:49 UTC
FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for FC Juarez and 1.19 for Club Tijuana, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Club Tijuana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Juarez home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Club Tijuana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 54.5% vs market 43.5%, edge +11.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 43.5% | 54.5% | 1.83 | +11.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.80 | 31.8% | 32.4% | 3.09 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 60.6% | 61.1% | 1.64 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.1% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.7% | 28.7% | 3.48 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 39.5% | 38.9% | 2.57 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 45.5% | 2.20 | -11.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Juarez
- 2026-10-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Necaxa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 1-2 (L)
Club Tijuana
- 2026-10-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T03:05:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T03:06:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-2 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2025-11-21T03:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-3 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2025-07-26T03:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-15T03:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2024-11-07T03:06:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2024-04-15T02:06:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2023-09-30T03:10:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-5 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2023-01-15T01:05:00.000Z · FC Juarez 3-0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2022-07-09T02:05:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-0 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
- 2022-03-21T03:06:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-1 Club Tijuana (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.