Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez · Referee Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava, Mexico · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
FC Juarez vs Tigres UANL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for FC Juarez and 1.52 for Tigres UANL, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Tigres UANL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres UANL win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Juarez home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres UANL away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 52.7% vs market 44.0%, edge +8.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.0% | 52.7% | 1.90 | +8.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.91 | 48.5% | 49.0% | 2.04 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 3.90 | 22.7% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.2% | 74.1% | 1.35 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.1% | 25.9% | 3.86 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.73 | 51.2% | 51.0% | 1.96 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 77.3% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.0% | 47.3% | 2.11 | -8.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Juarez
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres UANL · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Pachuca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 0-4 (L)
Tigres UANL
- 2026-09-27T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Juarez · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T01:10:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Santos Laguna · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-23T01:06:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2025-07-20T01:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-26T01:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-0 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2024-09-23T01:10:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2024-02-29T01:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2023-07-09T00:06:00.000Z · FC Juarez 1-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2023-02-15T01:05:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-0 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2022-07-27T00:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-1 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2022-02-26T03:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 2-3 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
- 2021-11-07T03:00:00.000Z · FC Juarez 0-3 Tigres UANL (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres UANL win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.