FC Kharkiv vs Bukovyna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.65 for Bukovyna, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives FC Kharkiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Kharkiv win

59.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Kharkiv home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bukovyna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Kharkiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 25% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.65 for Bukovyna, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

FC Kharkiv win60%

Draw25%

Bukovyna win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–017.0%
2–013.4%
1–111.1%
0–010.8%
2–18.7%

Recent form

FC Kharkiv

2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Prykarpattia · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalynivka · 9-0 (W)

Bukovyna

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polessya · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Zimbru · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · FC Kharkiv 2-0 Bukovyna (Premier League)
2025-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · FC Kharkiv 2-1 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
2025-04-14T12:00:00.000Z · FC Kharkiv 2-1 Bukovyna (Persha Liga)
2024-07-08T12:00:00.000Z · FC Kharkiv 0-0 Bukovyna (Friendlies Clubs)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	7	0	1	14	21
2	Polessya	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Dynamo Kyiv	7	5	1	1	5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	5	0	2	9	15
5	Karpaty	8	4	2	2	9	14
6	Zorya Luhansk	8	3	2	3	-2	11
7	LNZ Cherkasy	8	3	2	3	-2	11
8	Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	-5	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Bukovyna	8	1	5	2	-2	8
11	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Livyi Bereh	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	1	4	3	-8	7
14	Chornomorets	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	Kryvbas KR	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Kudrivka	8	0	2	6	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Kharkiv win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.