Tsentralnyi Stadion · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
FC Kharkiv vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.94 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives FC Kharkiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Kharkiv win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Kharkiv home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dynamo Kyiv away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Kharkiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.94 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
FC Kharkiv
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Prykarpattia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalynivka · 9-0 (W)
Dynamo Kyiv
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karpaty · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zorya Luhansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Kharkiv win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.