· Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
FC Koln II W vs SGS Essen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for FC Koln II W and 2.79 for SGS Essen W, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives SGS Essen W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SGS Essen W win
80.8% probability
Expected goals
0.69 – 2.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SGS Essen W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 7% / 13% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.69 goals for FC Koln II W and 2.79 for SGS Essen W, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 81% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.0%
- 0–311.1%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–47.8%
Recent form
FC Koln II W
SGS Essen W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoria Berlin W | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | SGS Essen W | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 23 |
| 3 | Hertha Berlin W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Bochum W | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 5 | Meppen W | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | Carl Zeiss Jena W | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Ingolstadt W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | SC Sand W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Andernach W | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Borussia Monchengladbach W | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt II W | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim II W | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
| 13 | Turbine Potsdam W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
| 14 | FC Koln II W | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SGS Essen W win, at 80.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.